Verifiable backtest analytics
Replay public Polymarket activity through fixed strategy definitions and inspect how each baseline behaves over the same 90 day window.
Built for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategy research
Verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies.
Polymarket Backtest replays the last 90 days of public Polymarket data against five canonical smart-wallet copy strategies, plus two benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold + Random copy). Reproducible to the cent. Pay with USDC on Polygon / Base - no fiat rail.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Not affiliated with Polymarket.
Methodology preview
90 day window
Historical metrics
Initial capital$1,000
Closed positions58
Pattern C PnL$2,358.68
Benchmark distribution
Disclosure checks
Lookback90d
Universefixed
Bait filterflag
Future claimnone
Reproducible pipeline
1. IngestPublic Polymarket data
2. NormalizeShared schema and prices
3. CompareFive patterns + benchmarks
4. DiscloseLimits, assumptions, caveats
What it is
Backtest the strategies you'd actually run, without custody or advice.
Specula and PolyTraderBot show the appeal of smart-wallet tools. Polymarket Backtest focuses on the missing verification layer: strategy returns, benchmark context, and disclosure-first methodology.
Strategy returns with context
Compare Pattern A through Pattern E2, including Buy-and-Hold + Random copy benchmarks and the filter behavior that can reduce returns.
Disclosure-first analysis
Surface future-performance caveats, limited wallet universes, bait-wallet risk, and lookback constraints as part of the product.
USDC-native beta path
Paid tiers are planned for USDC on Polygon / Base. Stripe / Lemon Squeezy / fiat rail not used.
Methodology
Make the assumptions inspectable.
The beta is designed around a simple idea: historical analytics should show the data path, the comparison window, and the caveats before it shows any headline number.
analysis.yml
read-only
window: 90_days
initial_capital: 1000_usd
source: public_polymarket_data
mode: verifiable_backtest_analytics
benchmarks:
- Buy-and-Hold
- Random copy
flagship:
pattern: C
pnl_usd: 2358.68
sharpe: 3.9977
disclosures:
future_performance: required
wallet_universe: limited
bait_wallet_risk: flagged
execution: none
Same window, same schema
Pattern A/B/C/D/E2 values use the same 90 day period and initial_capital = $1,000.
Pattern B shows the filter trap
prob 0.2-0.8 filter produced PnL $265.42 versus Pattern A PnL $1,279.65 over 90 days.
Independent third-party analytics
The service is not affiliated with Polymarket, Specula, PolyTraderBot, or any prediction-market venue.
Who it is for
Polymarket-native crypto users who want evidence, not a pitch.
The dashboard is intentionally narrow: historical, methodological, USDC-native, and inspectable.
Researchers
Explore public prediction-market behavior with reproducible windows and transparent assumptions.
Journalists
Use descriptive evidence and caveats when covering wallet behavior and market activity.
Polymarket power users
Compare historical strategy returns without receiving advice, custody, execution, or predictions.
Scope
Clear boundaries are part of the product.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only.
No custody - funds remain in your wallet.
All Polymarket positions and balances stay in the user's own smart-contract wallet on Polygon / Base. Polymarket Backtest never holds, routes, or custodies user funds.
No advice - outputs are descriptive analytics.
Backtest results show what five canonical copy strategies would have returned over the last 90 days. They are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, copy, trade, or participate.
Educational use only.
Polymarket Backtest is research-grade analytics software for analysts, researchers, journalists, and Polymarket-native crypto users who want verifiable historical baselines.
Not a prediction service.
We do not forecast outcomes or tell users what will happen in any market. Backtest replays past data - it does not predict future events.
Not a trading or wagering venue.
We do not route orders, provide execution, hold funds, or operate markets. Paid tiers (M3 launch onwards) settle in USDC on Polygon / Base directly to the project's receiving wallet, with no intermediary fiat rail.
Not affiliated with Polymarket.
We are an independent third-party analytics provider, not endorsed by or partnered with Polymarket.
Beta access
Join the research beta before the public launch.
We are inviting a small group of Polymarket-native crypto users, researchers, and analysts to review the methodology, stress-test the disclosures, and shape the dashboard.
Expected beta: August 2026
Planned payment rail: USDC on Polygon / Base. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require TAICHI confirmation. Stripe / Lemon Squeezy / fiat rail not used.
Request beta accessProvider
特定商取引法に基づく表記
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Terms of Service and Privacy Policy are planned for publication one month before M3 launch.
- 販売事業者
- 個人事業主
- 運営責任者
- 個人事業主
- 所在地・電話番号
- 請求があり次第遅滞なく書面または電子メールにて開示いたします。
- 連絡先
- polymarketbt@gmail.com
- 販売価格
- USDC denominated tier. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require TAICHI confirmation.
- 商品代金以外の必要料金
- Polygon / Base gas fees may be borne by the customer depending on the payment route.
- 支払方法
- USDC on Polygon / Base. Stripe / Lemon Squeezy / fiat rail not used.
- 役務の提供時期
- Closed beta access is provided after invitation and onboarding.
- 返品・キャンセル
- Digital service cancellation and refund terms will be defined in Terms of Service before M3 launch.