Verifiable backtest analytics
The preview documents how public Polymarket activity is replayed through fixed strategy definitions over the same 90 day window.
Public methodology preview for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategy research
Verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies.
Polymarket Backtest is opening its first public product surface as a methodology preview: benchmark framing, reproducibility notes, and disclosure-first limits before stronger beta asks. Paid access is planned around USDC on Polygon / Base - no fiat rail.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Not affiliated with Polymarket.
Methodology preview
90 day window
Historical metrics
Initial capital$1,000
Closed positions58
Pattern C PnL$2,358.68
Benchmark distribution
Disclosure checks
Lookback90d
Universefixed
Bait filterflag
Future claimnone
Reproducible pipeline
1. IngestPublic Polymarket data
2. NormalizeShared schema and prices
3. CompareFive patterns + benchmarks
4. DiscloseLimits, assumptions, caveats
What it is
Preview the backtest method before the beta ask.
Specula and PolyTraderBot show the appeal of smart-wallet tools. Polymarket Backtest focuses on the missing verification layer: historical baselines, benchmark context, reproducibility, and disclosure-first methodology.
Strategy returns with context
Frame Pattern A through Pattern E2 against Buy-and-Hold + Random copy benchmarks, including filter behavior that can reduce returns.
Disclosure-first analysis
Keep future-performance caveats, limited wallet universes, bait-wallet risk, and lookback constraints visible as part of the product surface.
Public surface before beta
Closed beta opens after the public methodology preview. Paid tiers are planned around USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned.
Methodology
Make the assumptions inspectable.
The next public surface is a methodology preview. Historical analytics should show the data path, benchmark framing, comparison window, reproducibility notes, and caveats before it shows any headline number.
analysis.yml
read-only
window: 90_days
initial_capital: 1000_usd
source: public_polymarket_data
mode: verifiable_backtest_analytics
benchmarks:
- Buy-and-Hold
- Random copy
flagship:
pattern: C
pnl_usd: 2358.68
sharpe: 3.9977
disclosures:
future_performance: required
wallet_universe: limited
bait_wallet_risk: flagged
execution: none
Same window, same schema
Pattern A/B/C/D/E2 values use the same 90 day period and initial_capital = $1,000.
Benchmarks before claims
Buy-and-Hold and Random copy sit beside Pattern A/B/C/D/E2 so a result is read in context.
Disclosure is part of the preview
The service is not affiliated with Polymarket, Specula, PolyTraderBot, or any prediction-market venue.
Who it is for
Polymarket-native crypto users who want evidence, not a pitch.
The dashboard is intentionally narrow: historical, methodological, USDC-native, and inspectable.
Researchers
Explore public prediction-market behavior with reproducible windows and transparent assumptions.
Journalists
Use descriptive evidence and caveats when covering wallet behavior and market activity.
Polymarket power users
Compare historical strategy returns without receiving advice, custody, execution, or predictions.
Scope
Clear boundaries are part of the product.
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only.
No custody - funds remain in your wallet.
All Polymarket positions and balances stay in the user's own smart-contract wallet on Polygon / Base. Polymarket Backtest never holds, routes, or custodies user funds.
No advice - outputs are descriptive analytics.
Backtest results show what five canonical copy strategies would have returned over the last 90 days. They are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, copy, trade, or participate.
Educational use only.
Polymarket Backtest is research-grade analytics software for analysts, researchers, journalists, and Polymarket-native crypto users who want verifiable historical baselines.
Not a prediction service.
We do not forecast outcomes or tell users what will happen in any market. Backtest replays past data - it does not predict future events.
Not a trading or wagering venue.
We do not route orders, provide execution, hold funds, or operate markets. Paid tiers (M3 launch onwards) settle in USDC on Polygon / Base directly to the project's receiving wallet, with no intermediary fiat rail.
Not affiliated with Polymarket.
We are an independent third-party analytics provider, not endorsed by or partnered with Polymarket.
Methodology preview
Follow the public methodology preview.
Build notes and newsletter updates will publish through Paragraph as the preview moves from benchmark framing to reproducibility notes and disclosure checks.
Closed beta opens after the public methodology preview.
Planned payment rail: USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require TAICHI confirmation.
Join the build notesProvider
特定商取引法に基づく表記
verifiable backtest analytics for Polymarket smart-wallet copy strategies. no custody. no advice. educational use only. Terms of Service and Privacy Policy are planned for publication one month before M3 launch.
- 販売事業者
- 個人事業主
- 運営責任者
- 個人事業主
- 所在地・電話番号
- 請求があり次第遅滞なく書面または電子メールにて開示いたします。
- 連絡先
- polymarketbt@gmail.com
- 販売価格
- USDC denominated tier. Pro $30-50 USDC/mo and Power $100-200 USDC/mo are evaluation candidates; final tiers require TAICHI confirmation.
- 商品代金以外の必要料金
- Polygon / Base gas fees may be borne by the customer depending on the payment route.
- 支払方法
- USDC on Polygon / Base; no fiat rail planned.
- 役務の提供時期
- Closed beta access is provided after invitation and onboarding.
- 返品・キャンセル
- Digital service cancellation and refund terms will be defined in Terms of Service before M3 launch.